UK inflation slowed less than expected in May

Consumer price inflation in the U.K. slowed only slightly in May, all but ensuring that the Bank of England won’t cut interest rates at its policy meeting on Thursday.

The Office for National Statistics said the consumer price index rose 3.4 percent in the year to May, down from 3.5 percent in April but still above market forecasts for 3.3 percent. The number is likely to strengthen the arguments of those on the Monetary Policy Committee that the Bank should remain “gradual and cautious” with rate cuts as it squeezes lingering inflation pressures out of the system.

The numbers will be a disappointment to Chancellor Rachel Reeves, given that they delay the day when businesses and mortgage-holders can look forward to the costs of their loans coming down. Around a quarter of the interest bill on the Treasury’s debt is also directly linked to the rate of inflation.

Inflation has been above the Bank’s two percent target for over three years, and a rise in household energy bills in April means that it is unlikely to come down substantially before the end of summer, according to the Bank’s calculations.