Distrust of Trump hangs over the emerging US-UK trade deal

There’s a fundamental challenge facing the nascent trade deal the United States and United Kingdom just unveiled: neither country trusts the man behind it.

A wide majority of American and British adults support their governments reaching a deal, according to a POLITICO-Public First poll conducted last month, but less than one-third of respondents in the U.K. and 44 percent of Americans said they believed Trump would abide by it. Nearly half of Americans, including 25 percent of his own voters, said Trump’s unpredictability is the biggest barrier to negotiations.

The poll offers a sobering assessment of how Trump’s whiplash-inducing approach to tariffs has eroded the United States’ credibility in other countries — a warning for the White House that its combative approach is pushing longtime allies towards its biggest economic rival: China.

After all, the U.K. deal is among the easiest to broker of the dozens the Trump administration is scurrying to complete by July 8. The administration announced Thursday an agreement that will lower tariffs on British-made cars, plane parts and steel and aluminum and open up the British market for American agricultural products, ethanol and machinery. But the agreement also dodged some of the thorniest trade issues between the two countries. And it was reached with a partner, the U.K., that has been working on striking a trade deal with the U.S. since the first Trump administration.

The POLITICO-Public First poll found that nearly half of Americans agree that the U.K. is the most important country for the United States to have as an ally — but only one in five say it’s the most important country to have a good trade deal with. And the specifics of the deal did not bother Americans, who generally supported any deal that did not introduce new tariffs, giving the administration room to maneuver on a deal.

But even as Trump takes a victory lap, the poll found serious warning signs about how Trump’s approach to tariffs is damaging the U.S. image both at home and abroad. A 42 percent plurality of British adults said that China would be a more reliable trading partner than the United States — with a majority citing Trump’s unpredictability as the top pitfall in any deal. That sentiment was particularly strong among young people, raising questions about the country’s future standing: A majority of U.K. adults younger than 34 said China is the more stable partner.

“China is looking a lot better these days, given that they’re not unilaterally and without provocation lashing out at even folks they thought were their closest allies and trading partners,” said Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics at the libertarian-leaning Cato Institute.

The news that the United States is nearing a deal with the United Kingdom is likely to be welcomed by adults in both countries.

A majority of American and British adults surveyed by London-based pollster Public First for POLITICO last month said they support their governments reaching a trade deal and agreed that the bilateral relationship is important not just on economic terms but also for national security.

The online poll of about 2,000 adults in each country was conducted from April 23 to 27.

While Trump largely spared the U.K. from his harshest tariffs — in large part because the U.S. ran a trade surplus with Britain in 2024 — the British automobile and steel sectors were hit hard by Trump’s 25 percent tariffs that went into effect earlier this spring. The U.K. exported $11.8 billion in automobiles to the U.S. in 2024 and the U.S. is Britain’s second most important export market for steel.

The framework announced Thursday will provide tariff relief for those sectors, but also comes with a guarantee that the U.K. will open its market to billions in U.S. agriculture, ethanol and machinery.

“I think that it’s a great deal for both parties,” Trump said. “It is for us. We’ve opened up, I didn’t know how closed it was, quite closed, the market, the UK. And it opens up a tremendous market for us, and it works out very well.”

American adults did not have strong feelings about possible elements of a U.S.-U.K. trade deal. Asked about a variety of options, Americans said they were willing to accept them without strong preferences.

But there’s deep-seated doubt among Americans about whether Trump would stick to his agreement: 47 percent said Trump’s unpredictability is the biggest barrier to negotiations between the U.K. and U.S. and 42 percent said they would not trust Trump to abide by a trade deal, including 11 percent of his own supporters and 36 percent of Independents.

The poll also shows the White House has not really sold the American public on his aggressive use of tariffs or broader trade agenda.

Just 34 percent of American respondents said they supported Trump’s decision to impose duties on other countries. Only 25 percent of independents supported raising tariffs, while 48 percent were opposed.

Trump has gone after nearly every country in the world with new tariffs, but has saved some of his sharpest salvos for key allies like the European Union and Canada. The president’s brash approach has been coupled with high tariffs on critical manufacturing sectors and a threat of sweeping global tariffs of up to 50 percent on some rising Asian economies that are strategically important to U.S. efforts to cut down China’s influence and economic power.

While Trump paused his most severe tariffs for 90 days, critics have warned his trade agenda, including his willingness to start and stop tariffs on a whim, will drive those countries toward Beijing, a finding borne out in the new polling.

China has engaged in a charm offensive with other countries as it seeks to position itself as a better trading partner as Trump tears up agreement after agreement. Chinese President Xi Jinping visited several Asian countries to discuss economic partnerships shortly after Trump unveiled his sweeping April 2 tariff regime and his government has also made overtures about expanding trade ties with the European Union.

While their economic rivalry has intensified, the world’s two largest economies are still deeply intertwined, and the ongoing trade war is threatening to do deep damage to the U.S. economy, driving up the price of goods like automobiles, clothes and toys, while risking product disruptions should the tariff wall between the two countries stretch on deeper into the summer.

China and the U.S. are set to begin talks this weekend, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has made clear there is still a long, uncertain road ahead.

“I think there is a lot of quite reasonable uncertainty out there,” said Ed Gresser, a former official in the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative now at the Progressive Policy Institute, a left-leaning think tank. “And that’s having its effects.”